Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 51711.886481 54839.278134 57975.604677 61354.287182 64888.615235 68473.995240 72383.545737
2024-10-13 46517.010802 51269.139326 56178.558889 61621.079826 67477.275690 73580.672170 80414.170820
2024-10-20 42671.073097 48492.758826 54649.738379 61629.293244 69304.079331 77468.568569 86792.931186
2024-10-27 39554.417920 46135.146205 53233.949912 61432.596286 70611.164406 80540.809653 92065.269423
2024-11-03 37806.182947 45089.452620 53079.734301 62454.521097 73108.821343 84797.035680 98544.031023
2024-11-10 36184.974137 44039.293715 52788.666208 63200.451763 75193.089426 88513.288933 104364.139628
2024-11-17 34558.399176 42864.151442 52248.931439 63564.048562 76758.781034 91580.607569 109406.746542
2024-11-24 32890.873742 41539.630068 51444.897932 63536.056424 77799.654453 93991.797274 113658.880328
2024-12-01 31574.476524 40555.413497 50971.198954 63831.625029 79164.743495 96739.439164 118278.065766
2024-12-08 30236.550895 39476.269280 50322.879986 63862.801952 80170.498586 99033.879286 122348.588509
2024-12-15 29475.558709 39057.372568 50429.632691 64766.410549 82191.261995 102511.752765 127817.061086
2024-12-22 28214.109269 37963.770729 49666.930788 64570.948681 82853.899071 104352.467407 131329.641552
2024-12-29 27615.749773 37688.770474 49906.701062 65611.196654 85039.590032 108057.549693 137141.084124
2025-01-05 26784.299525 37085.480563 49713.083735 66096.986892 86539.005014 110941.157152 141986.641624
2025-01-12 25803.722937 36251.228626 49195.085214 66147.403286 87478.412220 113132.792825 145994.129649
2025-01-19 24771.755532 35310.096465 48505.277714 65947.744781 88079.312925 114892.461302 149467.287905
2025-01-26 24373.616651 35180.669234 48836.072686 67030.954282 90282.166572 118628.102865 155386.130506
2025-02-02 23874.179998 34894.979670 48947.688410 67820.589557 92109.007074 121902.445049 160752.715858
2025-02-09 23232.885328 34394.529412 48758.925407 68205.351348 93410.452193 124520.305571 165313.454207
2025-02-16 22455.795679 33682.759623 48268.366435 68175.751414 94165.099216 126444.285213 169008.749551
2025-02-23 21856.197417 33192.382310 48051.712006 68488.451718 95349.581904 128906.839348 173388.021847
2025-03-02 21177.180625 32569.120748 47637.060691 68521.435071 96157.970937 130886.649433 177161.384325
2025-03-09 20883.421365 32472.074073 47921.061523 69477.303821 98170.613171 134409.349361 182912.897871